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The essence of winning revealed through esportsIn-match biosignals predict win/loss and assess expertise 
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Improving competitive performance requires objective evaluation of the mental states and levels of expertise that lead to victory. However, lacking sufficient scientific support, conventional assessments still depend heavily on coaches’ experience and intuition. This study measured athletes’ physiological states during esports competition and examined whether brain activity could predict match outcomes, as well as differences in physiological responses between advanced and intermediate players. We found that pre-match electroencephalograms could predict match outcomes with about 80% accuracy, that advanced players showed increased muscle activity at decisive moments, and that pronounced cardiac synchronization emerged when advanced players competed against one another. These findings enabled us to quantify, for the first time, the internal bodily states that influence winning and losing, and to establish a new metric for evaluating depth of expertise. This study may support evidence-based training, skill assessment, and mental-control technologies applicable to medicine, construction, and other high-pressure settings.
[1] S. Minami, H. Koyama, K. Watanabe, N. Saijo, M. Kashino, “Prediction of esports competition outcomes using EEG data from expert players,” Comput. Hum. Behav., Vol. 160, 108351, 2024.
[2] S. Minami, K. Watanabe, N. Saijo, M. Kashino, “Task context and player expertise modulate arm EMG linked to win-loss outcomes in esports,” Comput. Hum. Behav., Vol. 175, 108850, 2026.
[3] K. Watanabe, N. Saijo, S. Minami, M. Kashino, “The effects of competitive and interactive play on physiological state in professional esports players,” Heliyon, Vol. 7, No. 4, e06844, 2021.
Sorato Minami, Embodied Intelligence Research Group, Human Information Science Laboratory